Why AI doesn’t make companies more productive

In 1987, Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Solow wrote, “You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” The same could be said about AI today. Gartner projects worldwide AI spending of $2.59 trillion in 2026 , a 47% jump over last year, with the US accounting for at least half that amount, according to a wide range of estimates. But in the US, utilization-adjusted total factor productivity grew just 0.07% over the four quarters ending in the first quarter of 2026