AI cyber capability is speeding past earlier projections

AI cyber capability is improving faster than expected, with newer models surpassing earlier projections, according to the UK government’s AI Security Institute (AISI). AISI measures AI cyber capability using “time horizon benchmarks”, which estimate how long AI systems can complete cybersecurity tasks autonomously compared to human experts. “In February 2026, we estimated that frontier models’ 80%-reliability cyber time horizon had doubled every 4.7 months since reasoning models emerged in late